Important Islamic Dates & New Crescent Sighting

As usual the Eid controversy never ends here in the UK. The opposing ‘camps’ agree to disagree.

I’m using this post to prove a point to the doubters. These are the people who make the following claim:

“The Saudis don’t use a calculated, pre-determined system for deciding critical Islamic Dates. They rely upon new crescent sighting and adjust their calendar accordingly”

I’m making the claim, with evidence, that the above statement is not true AND that the pre-determined calendar is the primary decision maker used by Saudi Arabia for important Islamic Dates. This follows that the official Saudi announcements of new crescent sightings with the naked eye are potentially falsified in order to continue with these pre-determined dates.

A Point on Terminology

We don’t use the phrase “look for the new MOON” when talking about Lunar months, the correct phrasing is to “look for the new CRESCENT (aka hilal)”. A new moon is by its nature always 100% invisible, the new crescent however can appear anywhere from 12 to 24+ hours after the new moon.

The Aim

Exactly like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco and many other countries where there is a single organisation that declares the beginning of each Islamic month the aim here in the UK is to have a single body established to make the decision for all Muslims in the UK.

We cannot, and should not, continue on this path of division. There are a lot of more important issues we need to tackle together yet our failure to follow the Sunnah way and the ready evidence means we cannot yet agree on even this relatively simple decision.

Tables of Pre-determined Dates by Year

Each table will be updated after each key date has passed to record the Saudi decision (Saudi Actual Date). The question you should be asking yourself is “How do I know the future dates for Ramadan, Eid etc.?” – well I’m using the official Saudi Umm al-Qura calendar. This is based on purely astronomical data, and not on new crescent sighting (after all, how can I know future dates without sighting eh?!).

Here is the KEY point, IF indeed Saudi officials used valid new crescent sighting for the start of an Islamic month then the Pre-determined AND Actual Dates should never always 100% match.

So keep an eye on this page for the next few years, and if dates continue to match and the final column always says YES then the validity of Saudi new crescent sightings should be considered highly doubtful.

2023/1444

2024/1445

2025/1446

2026/1447

2027/1448

2028/1449

2029/1450

2030/1451

I could go on for ANOTHER FIFTY years as the calculations are readily available – but I won’t for now.

The Sunnah Way

“So whoever among you sights (the crescent on the first night of) the month (of Ramadan), he must observe sawm (fast) that month…” [Surah al-Baqarah 2:185]

It’s not merely good enough to say the moon is born or ‘could’ be visible on a certain day. It’s a requirement to go out and SEE it with your own eyes (no astronomical instruments allowed except as aids to help you locate it).

Our beloved Messenger (pbuh) said:

“Do not fast until you ‘SEE’ the new moon, and do not stop fasting until you ‘SEE’ it, and if it is concealed by clouds then count out (the thirty days of Sha’baan ) for it.” (Bukhaari, Muslim)

The Saudi Way

The Saudi methodology is to use a astronomical calculation based upon the birth of a new moon, this is completely different to SEE-ing it with your own eyes.

There are a number of issues with the Saudi new crescent sighting claims:

1. They do not provide any direct evidence of sighting the new crescent moon. Not a single validated photograph, video footage or anything irrefutable
2. In the age of instant communication they are unable to livestream any footage to explain who is doing the sighting (the ‘witnesses’) and what they have seen or not seen across the many viewing sites in Saudi Arabia. You will see photographs of the observers & their high tech binoculars and telescopes but nothing of the new crescent once sighted
3. Their claimed sighting often contradicts astronomical charts that provide guidance on which parts of the Earth can sight the new crescent moon on certain days at beginning of a lunar month
4. The best one is their own clear statement to Muslims in other countries “Do not follow Saudi in your new crescent sightings”…in other words, do your own!

The UK Way

On point 2 above, literally a bunch of amateurs can livestream EVERY SINGLE ISLAMIC month here in the UK, live footage and communication of the visibility (or not) of the new crescent moon here in the UK. Across at least 60 sites we have an amazing bunch of volunteers go out and sight it, and they have done for the last 6 years.

To those who make the claim there is ‘too much cloud’ in the UK, you do understand that not every single part of the UK is constantly covered in cloud right? You ever driven your car and been dazzled by the low winter sun from November to February???

To see the previous livestreams or join the next one (remember, EVERY Islamic month – not just Ramadan or Eids) go here: https://www.youtube.com/c/NewCrescentSociety

Or find the ‘New Crescent Society’ via Facebook or Instagram and do it the Sunnah Way

BUT you know what’s really disappointing? Only a couple of hundred people join the livestream – there should be THOUSANDs. I also strongly encourage you to go out and do your own local sighting (there is an online spreadsheet of all current sighting locations across the UK)

To the Naysayers

I’m more than happy to debate with you on the points you often raise as to why you or your masjid choose to follow Saudi, they usually are:

“That’s a 2 day moon you’re showing me. See we were right, our moon was a Day 1 moon”

“It’s too cloudy in the UK to see the moon. The UK is too far north. The weather is bad.”

“But but but what about days of Hajj and Eid al-Adha, how can we in UK be different to Saudi? How? I’m confused?”

“The Saudi Ulema and witnesses can be trusted by default as they are the custodians of the 2 holy sites”

“You’re causing fitna in our communities by making these absurd claims against the Saudis”

etc. etc. etc

Some FACTS related to New Crescent Sighting/Lunar Months

The Islamic Calendar is NOT always 29 or 30 Days alternating perfectly:

A lunar month is pretty much exactly 29.5 days long, so in practice this means each Islamic month is either 29 or 30 days for this reason but it does not alternate in a fixed pattern. It depends on moon sighting, meaning 2 consecutive 30-day months or 2 29-day months can occur

The new crescent moon CANNOT be seen everywhere at the same time:

The Earth is a sphere, and the moon orbits it. Pretty basic knowledge I know, but this is crucial in understanding why 1 place on Earth might observe the new crescent and another place does not on the same day. Hence why its acceptable for say India to start Ramadan or do Eid a day earlier than say the UK or North America.

So new crescent visibility depends on your location on earth, weather and atmospheric conditions.

The new crescent is NOT visible when the Lunar month starts:

The new moon (astronomical) is completely invisible because it is between the Earth and the Sun. What we see is the first visible crescent (hilal), which appears 12 to 24+ hours after the new moon. The Islamic month starts with the first visible crescent that you can see, not the astronomical new moon.

Science CANNOT always predict the new crescent visibility:

While astronomy can predict when the new moon occurs, it cannot predict exactly when the first new crescent will be visible. Visibility depends on horizon clarity, humidity, dust, and weather conditions, which cannot be perfectly calculated.